Hans-Eric Gronlund has an interesting post speculating on "The Extinction Of Programmers". While it's and interesting premise, I'm not worried just yet. Hans-Eric, quotes another article, The Future of Software Development by Alex Iskold which predicts a future where only a few high quality software engineers will be able to serve the world’s need of computer systems.
Sounds like the early computers scientist that was quoted as saying all the worlds computing could be done one a dozen or so mainframes...
Hans-Eric then proposes a time where a "Super-Compiler" exists that takes in specs and outputs fully functional, fully tested code.
The problem with this, is I find that frequently developing adequate specifications for a project is equally as hard as creating and testing the final code. The "Super-Compiler" would just move the effort a step back, and Developers will be spending their time developing error free specifications instead of error free code.
As we have all experienced, users frequently don't even know what they want, especially if they have never had it before.
Now when the "Super-Compilers" develop the ability to read users minds and foretell the future in addition to outputting functional, tested, bug free code, I'll start worrying.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Extinction Of Programmers? Not For A While!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
As an aside, your reference to the early computers scientist quoted as saying that a dozen or so computers would be enough for the world's computing needs probably alludes to a remark allegedly made by Thomas J Watson (the founder of IBM) in the 1940s - "I think there is a world market for about five computers".
Alastair Revell
Managing Consultant
Revell Research Systems
Precisely, Thanks Alastair for the assist. I wrote the post late at night and was too lazy to look up the exact wording and source...
Post a Comment